GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW AVOCADOS

In North America, Mexico is becoming the dominant supplier as California and Peru finish their seasons, while Morocco expects a recovery in exports following last year's decline. Tanzania is approaching the end of its season with limited stocks, while in Australia, reduced supply from Western Australia is expected to be partly offset by the upcoming Queensland crop.Italy: Prices decline as trade flows shiftThe avocado market is currently experiencing uncertainty and change. Prices are falling, with particular concerns surrounding produce from Israel. A wholesaler in northern Italy says politics is having an increasing impact on trade. Following Ireland, Belgium, and Spain, the Netherlands has also introduced a ban on the import, purchase, and sale of goods originating from Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories, which are considered illegal. The ban came into effect on 22 September 2026. The measure involves strict customs controls, including at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport."As for Israeli greenskin avocados, purchase prices remained high until week 38. The last Pinkerton avocados were trading at around €13 per box, Ryan at approximately €11, and Ettinger at between €11 and €12. The restrictions introduced in the Netherlands have resulted in volumes previously destined for the Dutch market being redirected elsewhere. This has triggered a sharp drop in prices, down to €7-8, with some offers at around €7 - approximately €4-5 less within a week. The Spanish Bacon season is expected to begin shortly, although prices are likely to be firmer than the exceptionally low levels currently seen for Israeli Ettinger avocados."Regarding Hass avocados, the Peruvian season is drawing to a close with a large quantity of larger sizes, particularly size 12. Meanwhile, the market is showing stronger demand for sizes 16, 18, and 22."Peruvian supply is expected to remain available until around mid-October. The imbalance between supply and demand has pushed purchase prices down to around €8, compared to €11-12 two to three weeks earlier. The Israeli Hass season is expected to begin around 20-25 October. Other origins, including Kenya, Colombia and Mexico, will then gradually enter the market, while Morocco is expected to start supplying around November."Although South African produce is still available, the wholesaler describes its quality as borderline and notes that the market does not have a particularly favourable perception of South African Hass avocados."The main source of uncertainty for October therefore remains Israel. It remains to be seen how certification requirements relating to specific Israeli production areas will be managed. This could affect both trade flows and the start of the new Hass season."Another wholesaler operating at a wholesale market in northern Italy says that Peruvian supplies are now coming to an end."After several weeks of high quality, the fruit is now showing some signs of the end of the season. The quality is still good, but not as high as it was a month ago. Produce arriving from Africa has excellent flavour, but only a fair external appearance. Prices are around €3.50-4.00/kg and are showing a slight downward trend. African produce is cheaper than South American fruit, partly due to lower logistics costs."According to YouGov data, avocados have become a staple in the diets of Italian consumers, with consumption increasing by 10% over the past three years. This growth has also been supported by an increase in purchasing frequency, which, in line with broader FMCG trends, has reached seven purchases per year. The average quantity purchased per shopping occasion has increased to over 400 grams. At the same time, spending per purchase has declined slightly, reflecting greater price accessibility at the retail level. In terms of purchasing channels, supermarkets and discount stores remain the main points of reference for consumers and continue to gain ground.Spain: Hass harvest to start in week 46The 2026/2027 avocado harvest is getting underway with the first Bacon avocados, although volumes are limited as it is a minor variety. The Fuerte harvest will follow, with Hass, the most widely planted variety, due to start in week 46. Overall, the harvest is projected at between 110,000 and 120,000 tonnes, with fresh market sales potentially exceeding 100,000 tonnes.Although storms and flooding in certain growing areas of Málaga and Cádiz affected some orchards, the entry into production of younger groves is expected to offset these losses. The harvest is expected to have better fruit sizes and greater size uniformity compared with the previous season.Spanish marketers are currently still handling Hass avocados from Peru, which will generally remain available until the first half of October. Meanwhile, avocados from Chile, Mexico, and Colombia are becoming increasingly significant."The avocado market has performed very well from the second-to-last week of July through the first week of September," notes a Spanish producer, importer, and exporter. "Over the last three weeks, we have seen slower sales—particularly for sizes 10 through 14—whereas sales of sizes 18 through 26 are proceeding normally," he explains.France: Prices decline as origins overlapThe global avocado market is currently experiencing a slowdown in consumption, reflecting a broader trend across the fresh produce sector. As a result, prices have declined over the past few weeks, after remaining at relatively good levels until recently. With large volumes available, market conditions have become increasingly challenging, particularly for very small and very large calibres. While medium-sized fruit continues to achieve relatively satisfactory retail prices, other calibres are struggling to find profitable outlets.The upcoming start of the Israeli and Moroccan campaigns is expected to add further pressure to the market. Morocco, which initially planned to start shipping at the end of the month, could face a difficult situation, particularly given the high volumes and large proportion of small-sized fruit expected from both origins. Although supply remains abundant, a more balanced distribution of volumes between origins is gradually taking shape. Peru, South Africa, and Kenya have not yet fully completed their campaigns, while Colombia is resuming shipments and Israeli fruit is ready to enter the market. Morocco is expected to follow shortly, creating a challenging transition period with several origins overlapping.One of the main uncertainties remains whether Israeli avocados will be listed by supermarkets. Given the announced volumes, limited access to retail channels could create difficulties in finding outlets for the fruit. However, volumes are already expected to decline in weeks 43 and 44, with around one million fewer cartons anticipated. This decrease could help rebalance the market, either by easing the current oversupply or helping to stabilise prices at their current levels. Managing the available volumes will therefore remain a challenge in the coming weeks.Germany: Supply expected to tighten in early OctoberDeliveries from Peru are still expected until the end of calendar week 40, while South Africa has already withdrawn from the market. The South African season was characterised by predominantly poor quality due to heavy rainfall. The East African peak season in Kenya and Tanzania is also gradually drawing to a close. From calendar week 41 until the end of the year, only small volumes will be exported to Germany.The Chilean season, on the other hand, is only now getting into full swing, with a slight increase in volume compared with last year's anticipated volume. Partly due to the very high market prices, Chile currently plays more of a supplementary role. "We need these quantities primarily to bridge the supply gap in October," one importer says.Colombia, Israel, and Morocco are also active in the market, with good yields and corresponding export volumes expected across all three origins. Overall, the first half of October is expected to be challenging in terms of supply, after which the market is likely to normalise somewhat.Netherlands: An unusual avocado market"The avocado market is currently benefiting from very good prices, despite demand being lower than in August. Overall, this is an unusual situation for this time of year," a Dutch importer says. Another importer confirms this assessment. "I find it quite a strange market. In my view, demand is disappointing. I didn't expect it, but we are still seeing good volumes from Peru for the time being. However, that supply is expected to decline in the coming weeks."Belgium: Avocado supply fluctuatingThe avocado market is currently facing supply issues in particular, according to a Belgian trader. "That is proving somewhat difficult at the moment. Demand is quite good. There is still sufficient availability of the larger sizes, but when it comes to the good standard sizes, supply is becoming tighter. Size 16 is still manageable, but for sizes 18, 20, 22 and the smaller sizes, there is a real shortage."According to him, the limited availability has several causes. "Peru had a different supply schedule this year, meaning that volumes came onto the market less evenly spread over the season. South Africa is also facing structural problems with production and quality. In recent years, South Africa has essentially no longer been producing top-quality fruit like we used to see ten or fifteen years ago. You can see that the quality is deteriorating significantly."North America: Mexico becomes dominant supplier as other seasons wind downAs California and Peru wind down their avocado seasons and some Colombian fruit arrives, Mexico is becoming the dominant supplier to the North American market. Expectations for the new season are positive, but Mexico's opportunity will be defined by volume as well as the industry's ability to anticipate the crop and match different sizes and grades with the appropriate markets.Mexico produced approximately 6.0 billion pounds of avocados in 2025. Of the roughly 2.69 billion pounds exported, approximately 2.38 billion pounds went to the U.S.One of the industry's challenges is finding the best market for the range of fruit harvested from an orchard. While #1-grade 48s and 60s are retail mainstays, they represent only part of the crop. Other sizes and grades need to be directed into bag programs, foodservice, processing, wholesale, and other channels.Demand remains strong. However, there is a shift in what North American customers expect from suppliers. Price and availability remain fundamental, but quality, consistency, ripeness management, traceability, communication, and dependable logistics are increasingly part of the value equation.Peru: Season declines despite an optimistic startThe export association estimates that 2026 volumes will be 1.9% lower than in the previous season, despite initial expectations of growth of close to 6%. El Niño raised temperatures and delayed dry matter development in larger-sized fruit by three to four weeks. Europe accounts for 67% of shipments through week 38, led by the Netherlands. Shipments to the United States have fallen sharply due to strong supply from Mexico and California. Asia is growing, with South Korea recording one of the largest increases.Colombia: Lower domestic supply, but stronger presence in EuropeThe off-season crop declined by between 40% and 45% due to weather conditions, while the main crop is concentrated in medium and small sizes. The United States' share of Colombian export volumes has fallen from 32% to 9% due to pressure from Mexico, while 98% of this exporter's volume goes to Europe. European prices are stable, but congestion is expected in November and December. Sustainability and traceability requirements are becoming increasingly stringent.Brazil: Higher volumes, lower profitabilityPrices have been declining since May due to competition from Peruvian Hass avocados in Europe and Argentina. Quality has been good, but smaller fruit remains difficult to place. Brazil is adding 1,000 hectares annually and expects oversupply to eventually eliminate the March-April window. The sector aims to extend the season through November and reach 1,000 containers in 2027.Guatemala: Progress toward the U.S. with smaller-sized fruitGuatemala's phytosanitary process with the USDA remains ongoing, one year after the working plan was signed. Certification already covers between 1,500 and 2,000 hectares and three packing facilities. El Niño and drought reduced fruit size. The 2026 season is expected to ship between 350 and 500 containers to Europe, compared with 500-750 in the best years. European demand is solid, although prices are not reaching peak levels. Chile is advancing as a new destination, while South Korea is becoming more challenging.Israel: Peru complements Israeli avocado seasonFor Israeli exporters, diversification of cultivation and sales markets remains important to reduce dependence on a single origin or season. Morocco offers opportunities to expand cultivation, but its season largely overlaps with the Israeli season. Peru is therefore of interest as a complementary origin. Peruvian supply enters the market over a period of around twenty weeks, with the large volumes potentially putting pressure on the European market and prices. Alongside Europe, Asia, Argentina, Chile, and the United States are becoming increasingly important sales markets.One Israeli exporter has expanded its own avocado cultivation in Peru to around 150 to 200 hectares, with the ambition of reaching 1,000 hectares. The first avocados from its own Peruvian orchards entered the European market this year. Expansion is also underway in Morocco, with the aim of reaching around 1,000 hectares of its own avocado cultivation within five years.India: A period of changing supplyIndia's avocado market continues to grow, although import growth is becoming more measured. Tanzania remains the main source of imported fruit, supported by duty-free access, while demand is expanding beyond the major metropolitan markets into retail, foodservice, and other channels. Importers expect 2026 volumes to be broadly similar to last year or up by around 30–40%, rather than repeating the sharper growth seen previously.Tanzanian Hass supply is now approaching the end of its season, with the current crop expected to run into October. Demand from India remains strong, although availability is tightening towards the end of the season. Fuerte supplies are expected from Tanzania in October, although the variety has a more limited fit in the Indian market than Hass.Domestic output is also gradually becoming more relevant as newer commercial orchards come into production. India does not have one clearly defined avocado season, with harvests spread across different regions and varieties. Imports will continue to fill much of the supply gap while newer orchards build up output.Fruit maturity remains a concern in the imported market, with premature harvesting affecting eating quality. As domestic output grows, Indian growers see an opportunity to supply fruit harvested at the right maturity.South Africa: Supply tapers off as season endsThe last of South Africa's avocados are leaving the country for the UK and EU. The season was made more difficult by South Africa starting late and Peru starting early. The impact of the impending El Niño could lead to a reversal next year, with South African avocados possibly arriving earlier than this year, while reports of a reduction in Peru's 2027 crop are already being mentioned.On the domestic market, the avocado price has edged upwards to €0.90 per kilogram, with a large difference between greenskins and Hass. At wholesale level, greenskins sell for between €1.30 and €1.50 per kilogram, compared with €0.70 per kilogram for Hass avocados, a reversal of global price trends. Hass availability is currently double that of Fuertes and Pinkertons.Avocado supply will taper off, and prices will probably reach their year-end highs.Morocco: Export recovery expected as competition increasesThe first Moroccan green-skin fruit of the season has reached the local market, and the new campaign is expected to recover after last season's losses. Exports fell 46% to 62,000 tonnes in 2025/26, from 114,000 tonnes the season before, according to Morocco Foodex. Hass estimates for 2026/27 still vary widely between industry players, ranging from 80,000 to 180,000 tonnes. Mid-range forecasts shared off the record by industry observers at the first Avocado Conference in Tangier on 30 September put output at around 140,000 tonnes, with exports of 100,000-110,000 tonnes, similar to 2024/25.The upcoming season is expected to bring strong competition for Moroccan avocados. Between weeks 40 and 12, combined shipments from Chile, Colombia, Israel, Spain, and Morocco could reach around 500 million kg, or roughly 5 million 4-kg boxes a week. One exporter says, "The key challenge will be to avoid excessive overlap between their respective production peaks. Chile (around 280,000 tonnes) and Colombia (up around 25%) are best placed in weeks 40-45, while Israel is heading for a record crop of about 300,000 tonnes. Its exports could reach around 165,000 tonnes, with the main volumes from week 51. That leaves Moroccan fruit a window between weeks 45 and 51. Spain is expected to step up from January, so January and especially February could bring the heaviest overlap."Morocco's advantages are size and transit time. Sizes 14 and 16 look scarcer from competing origins, while Moroccan trucks reach European buyers within 72 hours. Morocco currently accounts for about 17% of the roughly 407,000-tonne winter supply in Europe and could reach 20% in the upcoming season, according to one industry expert.Tanzania: End-of-season stocks tighten as air freight dominatesTanzania's avocado season is nearing its end, likely in October, but demand remains strong enough that exporters cannot fill every order, according to an exporter. Stocks are running low, and rising dry matter is making sea freight increasingly difficult, so shipments are going almost exclusively by air in batches of five to ten tonnes.India takes around 90% of shipments, with the remainder going to China, and zero customs duties are driving the momentum. Prices at this stage range from €7.10 to €7.70 CIF Nhava Sheva for a 4-kg carton. Fuerte harvests for the new season are starting, with some suppliers already picking and more arriving from October.The government wants to increase volumes. Agriculture Minister Daniel Chongolo has set a target of 235,000 tonnes for 2026/27, up from 201,354 tonnes in 2024/25, with exports projected at 40,000 tonnes. The plan includes training 9,500 farmers and 500 extension officers, distributing more than 1.7 million seedlings, and building 20 collection centres in areas including Mbeya, Iringa, Rukwa, Ruvuma, and Njombe.Australia: WA supply down, Queensland crop expected to ease marketWestern Australia is currently experiencing a smaller avocado crop due to the off-year in the crop cycle and weather events earlier in the year. According to one grower, the flowering of a local plant that strongly attracts bees resulted in weak avocado pollination in Western Australia. This led to a smaller crop than growers had expected. However, quality is especially good, with large avocados available. This maintains value for consumers where avocados are sold by the unit, although prices are high due to reduced supply.Queensland, however, is expecting a good crop, and the current tight market is expected to ease as supply from the east makes up for the anticipated shortfall in Western Australia.Next Topic: BananasPublication date: Fri 2 Oct 2026© FreshPlaza.com / Stefan Jansen van Nieuwenhuizen