GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW AVOCADOS

Outside Europe, market conditions are more varied. In Latin America, Peru is redirecting some volumes to the U.S. market, Colombia is anticipating a stronger main harvest following a weak secondary crop, Mexico is seeing prices recover ahead of the new season, and Chile is contending with compressed margins despite high volumes. In North America, additional supplies are helping offset tighter Mexican availability, while Australia is relying on export markets to absorb a larger crop. In India, imports continue to expand as consumer demand develops, although rising arrivals during the peak East African season have increased competition and placed downward pressure on prices.Netherlands: Large arrivals challenge market balanceThe South African and Peruvian avocado seasons are now in full swing, creating new dynamics in the market, according to a Dutch importer. "The season started positively. The Fuerte and Maluma Hass avocados from South Africa showed better quality than in previous years."However, conditions were not without challenges. "In May, we experienced heavy rainfall in the Tzaneen region. As a result, we saw increased issues with flesh browning in Maluma Hass and skin damage in Fuerte."Price developments in recent months have been largely influenced by rising volumes from Peru. "The large Peruvian supply has pushed prices down for both Hass and greenskin avocados. For greenskins, demand fortunately remained fairly stable, as available volumes were more limited."The situation is different for Hass avocados. "Prices are currently at a relatively low level. This is mainly due to the significant volumes from Peru placing strong pressure on the European market."Looking ahead, the importer remains positive about the South African assortment in the coming months. "We will continue with Pinkerton avocados and expect slightly lower volumes of Late Fuerte. In contrast, more Ryan avocados will become available. That is always good news for fans of South African greenskins."The Peruvian season also started slightly later than usual. "Due to colder weather conditions, the export campaign was delayed. From the end of May, larger volumes arrived in Europe. With Moroccan supply lower, Peru was able to secure a strong position in the European market during this period."Italy: Market adjusts to abundant supplyThe European avocado market is currently facing a challenging period, with imports reaching record levels in June 2026. The oversupply is being driven mainly by shipments from Peru, which are putting pressure on distribution channels and leading to a sharp decline in prices. In many cases, traders are selling below cost in an effort to reduce accumulated inventories.A wholesale trader in Milan shares this view, noting that stock levels remain high and average prices are more than 20 per cent lower than a year ago. However, he also points to signs that conditions could improve. According to the trader, better fruit quality and a recovery in U.S. demand could help rebalance trade flows from July onward, easing pressure on the European market.A wholesaler operating in a wholesale market in northern Italy reports that high-quality Hass avocados are currently selling for around €12-13 per 4-kilogram carton. Two months ago, wholesale prices were around €18-19 per carton, when supplies originated from a wider range of sources, including Peru and South Africa. At present, fruit is sourced almost exclusively from Peru, with shipments arriving through the port of Rotterdam.Sales continue to grow, reflecting increasing avocado consumption. The wholesaler notes that avocados sold through wholesale markets are almost always top-grade fruit, while lower-grade product is generally marketed through retail chains and discount stores, where prices can be lower.Fruit size also remains an important factor in pricing. The most sought-after sizes in wholesale markets are 14-16 counts, while smaller sizes are generally preferred by supermarket chains and food processors.France: Improved fruit quality offers some supportThe European avocado market remains under strong supply pressure as the Peruvian season reaches its peak and large volumes continue to arrive from several origins, including South Africa, Brazil, Kenya, and Colombia. Peru remains the dominant supplier, accounting for a substantial share of imports, while weekly arrivals continue at high levels. As a result, prices remain under pressure despite relatively stable consumer demand. European imports are well above last year's levels, with Peru directing a large part of its export programme to Europe due to limited opportunities in the U.S. market.Quality is showing signs of improvement. Brazil has emerged as one of the stronger-performing origins this season, supplying both higher volumes and consistent fruit quality, making it an attractive sourcing option for European buyers. South Africa, meanwhile, has faced challenges linked to the increasing presence of the Maluma Hass cultivar, which offers agronomic advantages but has yet to gain broad consumer acceptance for its eating quality.June remains a key month for the sector given the large volumes available. Increased retail promotions and stronger consumption will be important to help absorb supplies and improve market balance. Overall, industry sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as fruit quality improves, although demand will need to keep pace with the available supply.Belgium: High stock levels persistThe avocado market is currently facing significant oversupply, with large volumes arriving from countries including South Africa, Peru, Brazil, and Kenya, while demand remains behind supply. According to a Belgian importer, this is the result of earlier investments in new plantings that are now reaching full production. "There is simply too much coming in at the moment," he said. At the same time, several origin countries are supplying the European market simultaneously, adding further pressure to available volumes.In addition to the high supply, quality variations are also affecting the market, particularly in fruit from South Africa and, to a lesser extent, Peru, partly due to transport delays. This has resulted in quality issues and price pressure, with clear differences between origins. South African fruit is generally traded at lower prices because of the additional sorting and ripening costs involved. The market expects little improvement in the short term. According to the Belgian importer, the current situation may continue until August or September. "We'll just have to hold on a bit longer this summer."Germany: Large sizes face strongest pressureSurpluses continue to characterize the avocado market, particularly for the larger sizes (12-14-16). Large volumes are still arriving in Germany, especially from Peru, while the Brazilian season is gradually drawing to a close. According to an importer, Brazil is strengthening its position as a source country for the German market this year.South Africa also continues to supply substantial volumes, alongside countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, and Colombia, leaving the market more than saturated. Until the middle of week 23, the market for baby avocados (14-32) was also under considerable pressure. In recent days, however, the situation in this segment has reversed, resulting in rising prices.Except for South Africa, importers also report high rejection rates due to quality issues in many producing countries. Retailers are attempting to offset the current oversupply through large-scale promotional campaigns. Nevertheless, many consumers are currently focusing on seasonal products such as soft fruit and stone fruit.Recent indications suggest that export volumes from Mexico to the United States are declining. This could lead the U.S. market to source more fruit from Peru, which would in turn help ease some of the pressure currently affecting the European market.Spain: Exports increase as season endsSpain's avocado season recently came to a close with prices remaining at high levels throughout the campaign. Spanish avocado exports increased by 16% in volume and 8% in value during the first seven months of the season compared with the previous year.Exports to the European market developed similarly to the previous season, although at slightly higher levels, with December and February recording the strongest export volumes."The rise in irrigation water levels has been crucial to this year's nationwide avocado season. It has enabled us to provide larger quantities and better sizes, despite the impact of strong winds in Axarquia on the harvest," said one of Spain's largest avocado operators.The season was affected by persistent rainfall between January and February, with heavy rains lasting around a month and causing damage to some plantations in Cadiz. However, production in Malaga and Granada helped offset these losses.Morocco, Spain's main competitor in the avocado market, recorded a 50% decline in production, which supported prices for Spanish avocados during the season.The European market is now dominated by Peruvian avocados, including in Spain. An abundance of small-sized fruit from multiple origins has placed pressure on prices, resulting in lower values for both small and medium-sized fruit.Peru: Prices under pressure despite record volumesThe concentration of exports during the first weeks of the season saturated European inventories and pushed prices lower. The market is currently trading between €6.50 and €8.00 per carton, with smaller sizes attracting little to no demand.Fruit size was one to two counts smaller than usual, resulting in fewer kilograms per tree. It was not a matter of higher volumes, but rather that production was lower than initially expected.As a relief valve, Peru has started redirecting fruit to the United States amid weaker Mexican supply. The season is expected to close with returns below those achieved in 2025.Colombia: Weak secondary crop, promising main harvestHeavy rainfall at the end of 2025 caused the loss of between 50% and 60% of flowering, reducing shipments to just 50 containers per week compared with 120-180 during the same period in 2025.Export prices have fallen to levels where, in some weeks, the domestic market has become more profitable than exports.The positive outlook comes from the crop cycle itself. A weak secondary crop allows the trees to recover more effectively. Technical teams report good-quality flowering, and a strong main harvest is expected between weeks 32 and 34, precisely when demand in the U.S. market is expected to regain momentum.Mexico: Price recovery and the World Cup as a growth driverAfter a period of low prices, the market has recovered to 45 Mexican pesos per kilogram at farm-gate level. Prices closed the current season at between 50 and 55 pesos per kilogram and are expected to start the new season at around 40-45 pesos per kilogram as supply increases. Jalisco enters the new season on June 15, followed by Michoacán on June 22.Shipments declined from the usual level of 1,000-1,100 weekly loads due to over-ripening issues, although operations were never interrupted.An unexpected catalyst is boosting optimism for the second half of the year: the FIFA World Cup in Mexico. With nearly 5 million visitors expected in Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Mexico City, domestic demand is likely to remain strong throughout the tournament's 38-day duration.Chile: Profitability remains under pressureThe season has been characterized by high volumes but low profitability. The oversupply of Peruvian avocados saturated both the Chilean and European markets, forcing some lots of size 22 and 24 fruit to be sold for as little as €0.17/kg.Margins per container have fallen from historical levels of €2,550-4,250 to just €680-1,190 during the current campaign.Argentina is consolidating its position as a strategic destination, offering higher prices than the domestic market and export windows extending up to eight months.North America: Peruvian arrivals support marketFollowing last week's force majeure declarations by some companies over a shortage of avocados from Mexico, supply remains adequate, although the situation is more complex.The market had experienced eight months of steady availability from Mexico at promotable price levels. As a result, demand had been running 25 per cent above last year, although recent developments may have affected that trend.In the second half of May, Mexican growers warned that fruit availability could become insufficient.Prices subsequently increased. However, shipments from California have since helped fill the gap. Larger handlers had likely already been preparing to bring in Peruvian fruit, and those volumes have also increased.As a result, Mexico's share of total supply is declining. While Mexican fruit previously accounted for around 85-90 per cent of the market, that share is expected to fall to the low 70 per cent range this week.Looking ahead, California is expected to remain a strong contributor through August, while Peruvian arrivals are set to increase significantly in the coming weeks and continue through September. This will reduce the pressure on Mexico to meet supply requirements.While prices for Mexican fruit rose well above the market's preferred operating range, they are now beginning to ease.India: East African volumes reshape supply mixIndia's avocado market continues to expand, supported by growth in retail, foodservice, e-commerce, and quick-commerce channels. Quick-commerce platforms generated nearly 25 million avocado orders in 2025, highlighting increasing consumer awareness and availability.Import volumes have risen alongside demand. Between January and May 2025, imports reached 7,600 tons, a 150 per cent increase compared with 3,000 tons during the same period a year earlier. The market now includes more than 120 active importers.Tanzania remains the dominant supplier, benefiting from duty-free access and transit times of around 10 days. Kenya has also increased its presence in the market, although its competitiveness is affected by a 33 per cent import tariff. Together, the two East African origins account for around 90 per cent of India's avocado imports.However, the market is currently facing pressure during the peak Tanzanian season in May and June, when arrivals traditionally increase. This year, higher volumes combined with slower market movement have created an oversupply situation. Consumption continues, but buying activity has become more cautious, and market rotation has slowed.Unlike previous seasons, when Tanzania supplied almost all imported volumes during this period, Kenya now accounts for a larger share of arrivals. Industry estimates place the current import mix at approximately 70 per cent Tanzania and 30 per cent Kenya. Market participants suggest that softer demand in Middle Eastern markets may have encouraged some exporters to redirect shipments to India.As a result, prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks. Market prices are currently averaging around €5.50-6.40 per box, with expectations that prices could weaken further through June if arrivals continue at current levels.Australia continues to supply premium fruit later in the year, although transit times of 25-30 days create logistical challenges for a product with limited shelf life. Including inland distribution and retail handling, the total journey from farm to consumer can exceed 40 days, limiting the number of origins with meaningful access to the Indian market.Industry stakeholders report that improvements in ripening infrastructure and customer feedback from quick-commerce platforms are helping guide category development. As the market continues to expand, maintaining quality consistency while managing growing supply volumes remains a key focus.Australia: Export growth supports domestic marketA large avocado season in Australia has resulted in higher supply, lower prices, and increased export volumes. A strong Western Australian Hass season was followed by a large Queensland Shepard harvest, boosting availability in the domestic market.The surplus is being directed into export channels, with shipments reaching record levels."We've actually been shifting record volumes of fruit overseas," an exporter said. "Export markets tend to take the sizes that retail does not want." Around 20% of the Australian Shepard crop has been exported this season, compared with a typical level of 10%.Lower prices have created challenges for producers, with one grower saying: "Overall, it's been an incredibly challenging season for Shepards. Price uncertainty around the world, combined with consumers moving away from fresh produce as the cost of living rises, has exacerbated what was already going to be a challenging season."The result has been sustained pressure on returns. "For quite some time, the market was unfortunately trading below the cost of production," he said. "It's been tough, but we're almost through to the other side."Next Topic: Stone FruitPublication date: Fri 5 Jun 2026© FreshPlaza.com / Stefan Jansen van Nieuwenhuizen