GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW MANGOES

In North America, reduced crop forecasts for Ecuador and Peru are expected to affect supplies and prices, while Brazil continues to dominate current arrivals. South Africa anticipates a 20 per cent smaller harvest and is reconsidering its export options due to logistical challenges. Meanwhile, Australia expects good fruit quality and higher volumes as its mango season progresses.Germany: Prices expected to rise due to Peruvian supply shortagesOverall, the mango market is expected to become more challenging in the coming months. The main factor is the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is having a particularly severe impact on the Peruvian season. Brazil is currently the main supplier to the German market. The peak season for Kent mangoes is gradually getting underway, while Palmer and Keitt varieties remain available. Substantial price increases are expected in the coming months. According to one importer, there are two reasons for this: strong domestic demand in Brazil is competing with export supplies, and the Keitt season is drawing to a close. Brazil is also benefiting from its strong competitive position, as the season in the Dominican Republic has ended, and Spanish Keitt mangoes are not yet fully available on the market.Peru expects mango output to be up to 65 per cent lower than in previous years. Growers are particularly affected, especially small and medium-sized farms that cannot afford additional investment in crop protection to mitigate the effects of the weather. El Niño is expected to peak between mid-November and the end of December, raising concerns about heavy rainfall, extreme temperatures, and infrastructure-related problems. The situation is further complicated by rising freight charges in the Panama Canal and higher oil prices. "We expect mango prices at levels we have not seen in previous years. This is likely to reduce mango consumption in Germany and other European countries to some extent. The market is unlikely to stabilize significantly until the end of February," predicts a fruit importer.Italy: Prices expected to rise as Spanish season endsBrazil has been the main supplier of sea-freighted mangoes in recent weeks, with approximately 300 containers arriving in Europe each week, predominantly of the Palmer variety. Until week 46, the market will also benefit from a steady supply of Spanish Osteen mangoes, which play an important role in overall availability. In the coming weeks, Spanish supplies are expected to gradually decline, leaving Brazil as the only major source of sea-freighted mangoes until December. For air-freighted mangoes, Brazil remains the main supplier until week 45, with shipments expected to continue until week 50. The first consignments of Peruvian Kent mangoes began arriving in Europe in week 41, with volumes expected to increase gradually from November. However, overall availability will be lower than initially anticipated due to crop damage caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon.The market for sea-freighted mangoes continues to face strong downward pressure on prices. Wholesale prices for Palmer mangoes remain low for 4 kg packs, with a similar trend in the large-scale retail sector. Prices are expected to change in the coming weeks as summer fruit supplies decline and the Spanish season ends. In contrast, air-freighted mangoes remain in the higher price segment. Peruvian mangoes are currently commanding high wholesale prices for 6 kg cartons, while Brazilian mangoes maintain stable average prices for the same pack size. On the demand side, Italian retailers are showing growing interest in ready-to-eat mangoes imported by sea, while air-freighted mangoes remain popular in 400- and 450-gram formats.From a logistics perspective, sea-freighted mango shipments are currently experiencing no particular difficulties. However, the situation is more challenging for air-freighted Peruvian mangoes, with transport costs increasing on a weekly basis. Rising freight rates directly affect overall product costs and, consequently, final selling prices.Over the coming weeks, prices for sea-freighted mangoes are expected to rise gradually as the Spanish season ends and the number of available supply origins decreases. Brazil will remain the only major supplier until weeks 50–51, when the first sea-freighted shipments of Peruvian Kent mangoes are expected to arrive in Europe. However, Peruvian availability may be limited by the impact of El Niño on the crop. These conditions are expected to make the market particularly challenging between December and January.The Netherlands: El Niño continues to affect the market"El Niño is one of the main factors influencing the market this year. Although its greatest impact on European supplies is expected between mid-December and the end of February, we have already been feeling the effects since the summer," says a Dutch importer. "Normally, July and August are difficult months, but this year, prices in Brazil remained high due to strong demand from the U.S. As a result, the European market got off to an exceptionally strong start."In July, European buyers began seeking alternative sources as concerns about El Niño increased. This resulted in a substantial rise in Egyptian mango supplies this year. At the same time, arrivals from Brazil suddenly increased, leaving the European market oversupplied by the end of August. High purchasing prices and slow sales followed, with the market spending much of September recovering. Consumption is now showing signs of improvement, supported by the low prices of recent weeks and a slight increase in promotional activity. "We expect prices to edge up a little further this week and next, before falling back again.""During the previous El Niño, many importers lost money by committing to supply agreements with guarantees that were set too high. The market has learned from that experience, and buyers are now more cautious. The summer has already shown that we can anticipate changing market conditions. Expectations are that consumption and sales potential will be significantly lower this year. Importers may therefore turn to origins that are not usually represented on the market, such as South Africa and Ecuador, or extend the Brazilian season and continue sourcing Brazilian mangoes for longer."France: Market shifts from Spanish to South American suppliesThe French mango market is transitioning from the end of the Spanish season to South American supplies. In Spain, the Osteen season is gradually coming to an end, while Keitt mangoes are expected to remain available through November. Despite declining Spanish output, prices have not risen across the board, partly due to the continued availability of Brazilian mangoes. Brazilian Palmer exports to Europe increased in early October, while abundant Tommy Atkins supplies continue to put downward pressure on prices in Brazil.Prices vary considerably depending on origin, variety, and shipping method. In Nantes, sea-freighted mangoes were quoted at €2.45/kg on October 16, unchanged from the previous assessment. Air-freighted mangoes command considerably higher prices, with Brazilian Kent quoted at €7/kg and Peruvian Kent at €8.80/kg at the Rungis wholesale market on October 22.Attention is now turning to the upcoming Peruvian season. Although air-freighted Kent mangoes are already available on the French market, flowering problems in certain growing regions have raised concerns about potentially lower or more irregular yields. However, the impact on sea-freighted volumes remains difficult to assess.Regarding demand, European market conditions are currently more favorable for Brazilian Palmer mangoes than for Tommy Atkins, although purchasing activity is expected to slow toward the end of October. Looking ahead to November, market developments will largely depend on the pace of Peruvian arrivals, Brazilian supply levels, and demand. Reduced availability of sea-freighted Peruvian mangoes could lead to firmer prices in certain segments, provided demand remains stable and Brazilian supplies do not fully compensate for the shortfall.Spain: Harvest declines by 30% as import competition increasesSpain's 2026 mango season is marked by a harvest decline of around 30%. Heavy winter rainfall and strong winds have affected flowering, while high temperatures have accelerated ripening. Cultivation is concentrated in Málaga and Granada, with Osteen accounting for approximately 70% of national output, followed by Keitt (10%) and other varieties (20%). In the medium term, the area under mango cultivation is expected to expand, particularly for Osteen and Keitt.On the market side, Spanish mangoes face strong competition and downward pressure on prices, although the situation has not been as difficult as during last year's season. The arrival of Brazilian mangoes at considerably lower prices than in previous years has increased competitive pressure and made it more difficult to access markets such as Germany and other Northern European countries, which are partly supplied through the Netherlands and the port of Rotterdam. Israel's extended season has also increased competition in some markets.Expectations of a smaller Peruvian harvest could encourage Brazil to increase shipments to Europe, particularly during November, December and January. Reduced Spanish availability could also lead to higher imports to meet European demand. Spanish suppliers are therefore expected to face particularly strong competition in price-sensitive market segments.While lower Spanish availability creates opportunities for other supplying countries, proximity to European markets, freshness and eating quality remain competitive advantages for Spanish mangoes in certain European market segments.North America: El Niño expected to reduce upcoming mango suppliesBrazil continues to supply mangoes to the U.S. market, accounting for 80 per cent of total volumes last week. There is hope that the Brazilian season will extend into December.Ecuador and Peru are the next seasonal suppliers, with shipments beginning in November. However, the outlook is challenging. Early crop projections for Ecuador indicate a potential decline of 50 per cent, primarily due to El Niño and associated weather conditions. Peru faces similar challenges, with its crop projected to decrease by more than 30 per cent. These two countries typically supply the market until Mexico's 2027 season begins.Prices are reflecting current supply and demand conditions. Larger Brazilian mangoes are priced in the teens, above last year's levels, while smaller sizes are selling at or slightly below last year's prices. With Peru forecasting reduced supplies, prices are likely to be higher than last year.Meanwhile, the industry faces the challenge of keeping mangoes on consumers' shopping lists as costs rise and disposable incomes come under pressure. Retailers will need to use promotions to help maintain demand.The outlook for 2027 is more optimistic. Early flowering and crop reports suggest that Mexico's upcoming mango season will be stronger than last year.Peru: Lower flowering rates threaten export suppliesPeru's 2026/27 mango season is expected to see a reduction in supply due to weather conditions associated with El Niño and lower-than-expected flowering of the Kent variety. Preliminary estimates indicate that the harvest could decline by more than 30%.In the main growing regions, open flowering has reached approximately 20% in Piura, 10% in Lambayeque, and up to 45% in Áncash. Higher-than-usual minimum temperatures have affected flower development, while possible rainfall in late November could further reduce the availability of export-quality fruit.Fresh mango exports have already declined from 287,424 tonnes in the 2024/25 season to 223,686 tonnes in 2025/26. With lower supplies expected in the upcoming season, upward pressure on international prices is anticipated, particularly in the U.S. market, where Peru and Ecuador will remain key suppliers until the Mexican mango season begins in 2027.The sector continues to face challenges related to climate uncertainty, high cultivation costs, crop nutrition, and the need to improve yields and the quality of fruit intended for export.South Africa: Harvest forecast to decline by 20%The South African mango harvest is still two months away, and the industry is having to reconsider its export plans for the Middle East. Under current conditions, transit times to the region are around thirty days, which is simply too long. However, Peru's smaller crop could create opportunities in the European market.The South African mango crop is expected to be 20 per cent lower than last year's bumper harvest, with a forecast of 67,300 tons. This represents a return to an average-sized crop, which may be beneficial given the current marketing uncertainties. During the 2024/2025 season, exports accounted for 11 per cent of the total crop, fresh produce market sales for 23 per cent, drying for 20 per cent, and juice for 11 per cent.Potential alternatives to Middle Eastern exports include increasing supermarket sales, introducing post-New Year promotions to move volumes, expanding mango drying and dried mango exports, and encouraging greater use of mangoes in the fresh-cut sector.One of the mango industry's ongoing challenges is that peak Tommy Atkins supplies from early December to early January exceed demand in both domestic and export markets. According to the mango growers' association, this results in poor returns for growers on a substantial portion of the crop. The industry is therefore looking for cultivars that could replace Tommy Atkins.Australia: Positive outlook for quality and volumesThe Australian mango season is still in its early stages, but initial signs are positive. Despite severe weather earlier in the year, industry participants are optimistic that the challenges have been overcome. Fruit quality is good, and volumes are expected to be high. Supplies are expected to increase further as Queensland's harvest gets underway.Next Topic: MushroomsPublication date: Fri 23 Oct 2026© FreshPlaza.com / Stefan Jansen van Nieuwenhuizen