GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW ORANGES

Looking ahead, Spain expects a smaller orange harvest, while Italy is preparing for the start of its domestic season. Egypt's unusually long campaign continues on late demand for previously less-favoured sizes. In North America, smaller oranges are becoming tighter as California's Valencia season winds down, while Florida prepares to start harvesting. India is also approaching the switch from imported oranges to domestic supplies.Italy: Stable prices as Mediterranean season approachesAs the change of season approaches, the Italian orange market is seeing stable prices, with supply still heavily dominated by overseas produce. According to a southern Italian wholesaler, the prolonged availability of competitively priced Egyptian Valencia oranges until August has supported consumption and tempered expectations for South African produce. South Africa is currently the main source on the Italian market, although quality is inconsistent, while volumes from South America are more limited. This situation could change in the coming weeks as southern hemisphere supplies gradually run out and the new Mediterranean season begins. However, the continued availability of substantial volumes of overseas produce could slow exports of the first Italian and Spanish oranges, initially directing them mainly towards their respective domestic markets. Meanwhile, the latest varieties arriving from the southern hemisphere are showing signs of improved quality.A Sicilian grower states: "The crops are currently in a normal growth phase for young fruit and are in average condition. They have weathered the high summer temperatures thanks to careful irrigation, so it is still too early to draw any definitive conclusions about the 2026/27 orange season. In western Sicily, harvesting of the early-ripening Navelina variety is expected to begin around 20 November and continue until December, before the Washington Navel variety takes over from late December to March."According to YouGov surveys, the penetration rate for oranges remains broadly stable at around 71 per cent of Italian households in the year ending July 2026. Expenditure per transaction remained stable at just over €3, while the average expenditure per transaction fell to around €1.85. Further insights come from the organic sector. Although there is significant overlap between organic and non-organic purchases, organic products only achieve a penetration rate of 20 per cent, which has remained stable over time. This figure could represent an opportunity, particularly given consumers' growing focus on wellbeing, health, and food quality. In terms of retail channels, supermarkets remain dominant, followed by discount stores and hypermarkets. Greengrocers also play a notable role, with a market penetration rate of 10 per cent, not far behind the 13 per cent achieved by hypermarkets.The Netherlands: Difficult sales during the summerThe South African citrus season faced numerous challenges this year. "Even experienced suppliers are describing it as the worst year ever. It really was a perfect storm," says a Dutch importer. "Spring was already marked by heavy rainfall, followed by strong gusts of wind, which caused considerable peel damage. We also noted that the fruit struggled to achieve the desired Brix level, while citrus flavours varied considerably. Additionally, the season was plagued by numerous logistical challenges, with ports, particularly in the north, becoming severely congested. At times, several million cartons were stuck waiting for shipment. For produce of already lower-grade quality, a one- to two-week delay is highly detrimental. Port disruptions remain a major issue. For instance, bad weather last week delayed operations across the board, leaving a massive volume of fruit still stranded and awaiting shipment.""Overall, this led to a difficult market situation. Retail data shows that orange consumption was 10–15% lower than last year. The warm weather certainly contributed to this. High temperatures prompt consumers to choose other products, like melons. We also see that grapefruit, and to a lesser extent oranges, are mainly bought by older consumers. This is a trend we have tracked in retail data for a number of years," the importer explains."By now, the final volumes of oranges are already on their way. I think the market will have no choice but to use large juice oranges for the fresh market. The start of the juice orange season will be more difficult, given the large volumes still available."Germany: South African orange prices easeValencia Late blond oranges from South Africa were moving too slowly on German wholesale markets and consequently became cheaper. Wholesale prices for South African Valencia Late and Navel oranges recently ranged between €1.10 and €1.30 per kilogram, slightly below the level recorded during the same period last year. According to the latest BLE market report, Egyptian oranges had almost disappeared from the market between calendar weeks 36 and 37.France: Demand strengthens on limited supplyThe global orange market is currently seeing renewed interest, particularly for table oranges. Demand has strengthened over the past two weeks, supported by relatively limited market volumes and a strong focus on fruit quality. South African oranges are currently the most widely represented, with particularly positive market momentum for eating varieties. Prices remain at satisfactory levels, supported by good demand, controlled availability and high-quality fruit.Spain: Harvest expected at 2.8 million tonsSpain's orange harvest for the 2026/27 season is forecast at 2.8 million tons, down 4.6%, or 134,300 tons, from the previous season and 7.4%, or 224,600 tons, below the five-year average, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food. Oranges are expected to account for 49% of Spain's total citrus volume, with Navel varieties representing 72% of the orange crop.The season started with sufficient water availability after winter and spring rainfall maintained reservoir levels. Spring rains generally did not interfere with flowering or pollination. However, high summer temperatures caused fruit drop, particularly in oranges and clementines, reducing earlier harvest expectations.The Spanish orange season ended with the last Valencias in August. Spain is currently sourcing oranges mainly from South Africa, which is expected to continue until November, when the first Spanish Navelinas arrive. Spanish oranges will then coexist with the final South African supplies until December.Spanish importers report poor quality for South African Navel and Navel Late oranges due to heavy rainfall at origin. Although prices are low, demand for imported oranges has also been low so far this summer, according to importers. The sector is waiting for consumption to increase after the summer holiday period and the end of the stone fruit and melon seasons. The gradual decline in temperatures should help boost consumption in the coming weeks.Meanwhile, purchases of Spanish oranges in the field by trading companies ahead of the harvest are considerably quieter this year than in previous years. The sector learned a difficult lesson from the previous campaign, when market prices were too low to generate profits after high prices had been paid at origin.Spain remains the EU's largest citrus grower and ranks sixth globally. Over the past five marketing seasons, the country has exported nearly 3.25 million tons of citrus annually, with an average value of around €3.586 billion per year. On average, 51% of Spanish citrus output is exported."Spain ranks as the EU's top citrus fruit producer and sixth globally," the Ministry stated.South Africa: Export disruptions leave more oranges on domestic marketSouth African consumers have never had such an abundance of inexpensive oranges, with Valencias selling for as little as €1.5 for a 10kg mesh bag, as the war in the Middle East and unaffordable shipping costs for circuitous routes have closed the door on the bulk of exports.Orange counts in the north of the country are generally larger than market requirements. The sweet spot for Valencias now lies in counts 74, 88, and 105, specifically for in-store juicing in Europe and the UK. There are reports of oranges being dumped, while local NGOs are scrambling to collect unwanted fruit for distribution in a country beset by food insecurity.The navel export season is almost at an end, while Valencias will continue for some weeks yet. The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA) and the Fresh Produce Exporters' Forum (FPEF) have announced the conclusion of the 2026 Valencia orange export season to Europe. The current Valencia export estimate stands at 56.6 million 15kg cartons, down from an original forecast of 63 million cartons. The navel export forecast now stands at 24.5 million 15kg cartons, compared with an initial forecast of 30 million cartons. Both 2026 figures are significantly lower than their 2025 counterparts.By this time in 2025, 26% of the navel crop had been sent to buyers in the Middle East. This year, that figure is 10% lower. Consequently, Europe's share has increased from 36% last year to 40% this year. In third place as a recipient of navels is the United States (11%), followed by Russia (9%).For Valencias, the Middle East's 18% share of the total crop in 2025 has fallen to 10% YTD 2026. The 36% allocated to Europe last year has risen to 43%. Asia is the third-largest market with 11%, a figure that has remained unchanged YTD over the two seasons, followed by China with a 9% share, slightly more than it had received by this time last year.North America: Pressure on small orange availabilityCalifornia: There is an adequate supply of California Valencias as the season starts winding down. Valencias are mainly used for juicing programs, with greater demand for smaller sizes.Demand is expected to increase this month. Prices for larger Valencias are lower due to limited demand, while prices for smaller sizes are starting to increase rapidly, particularly for sizes 113 and 138.Florida: Florida orange growers want to send more fruit to the fresh market rather than processing this season. While fresh market prices can be better than juice prices, processing plants traditionally do not open until the end of December, while growers have been picking fruit since early October.The 2026 crop is expected to have clean fruit with better external quality, good Brix levels, and ratios compared with previous crops. Sizes will initially be small. The crop is expected to be slightly larger than last year, with picking beginning next week.Imports: Chile and South Africa are also short of small fruit, with Chile now finalising its last shipments. South Africa has Midnights on the way, which are also larger and will be available in North America in October. Australian citrus is also on the market.Egypt: Late demand extends the seasonThe 2025/26 season opened with weak momentum in Egypt. By late January 2026, exporters reported Navel orange volumes at only around 30-40% of the previous year's level, with demand soft almost everywhere except in a few markets such as Brazil. Abundant Chinese supply, well-stocked European concentrate factories, and strong competition from Spain were cited as the main challenges, alongside cautious end-consumer demand due to freezing weather in many parts of the world. One exporter said, "European markets just decided to skip the Egyptian Navel season." Early Valencia trade followed the same pattern, with buyers unwilling to meet exporters' higher asking prices for large sizes.At the end of February, the outbreak of war in the Middle East came at what exporters described as a critical moment, just as demand from Asia was expected to pick up. The renewed Red Sea crisis forced ships away from the Suez Canal route, sharply increasing freight costs and transit times, halting exports to East Africa, and disrupting shipments to Gulf countries and smaller import-dependent markets accessible via Gulf air hubs. Exporters were concerned about resulting oversupply in Europe as Asia-bound volumes were rerouted.By late April, that redirection was visible in India, where Egyptian Valencias were arriving at prices 30-40% lower than during the previous year's post-Ramadan spike. This was partly because volumes previously destined for the Middle East were being redirected to Asian markets, although shipments were increasingly delayed and bottlenecked through Colombo as direct sailings stopped.In mid-May, Egypt's agriculture ministry announced that it had opened Peru as a new export market for oranges, as part of a broader effort to increase food exports.By early June, oversupply on the European market had become evident, eroding grower and exporter margins as global inflation made buyers more price-sensitive. Overall export volumes were expected to finish close to the previous year's level, but grower and exporter profits were projected to decline due to higher logistics costs and pricing pressure.By September 2026, the campaign is still running, making it an unusually long season. The extension is being driven by unexpectedly strong late demand for odd sizes that were unwanted earlier in the season, particularly from European re-export hubs such as Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK. Prices remained flat and low through most of the season, but allowed for modest margins only in the final stretch.India: Domestic season approachesThe Indian citrus market is entering a transition period, with September expected to be the final month for imported oranges and mandarins before domestic fruit begins to take over. South African oranges have been on the market for the past two months, but longer transit times and reduced arrivals have tightened availability. A 15-16 kg box that initially sold for around €19.50 is now selling for €22.00-22.90.Domestic harvesting has started in Ahmednagar, although fruit has not yet reached the market in significant volumes. Nagpur oranges are also expected to start soon, while Kinnow from Punjab is expected to begin arriving in around 20-25 days. The domestic season is expected to continue through February, with demand for imported fruit likely to ease as local supplies increase.Next Topic: TomatoesPublication date: Fri 18 Sep 2026© FreshPlaza.com / Stefan Jansen van Nieuwenhuizen